connect failed: Connection refused
This means that you'r not able to connect to 5000 on the remote end.
If you'r only using this connection from within your guest through your SSH tunnel then you don't need the forward from VBoxManager, as this will open op so that outside computers can connect directly to your guest, it won't help your guest connect to the outside.
Are you sure the server you connect (SSH) to is the same server that runs your database? And is the database running on that server?
When you've connected (SSH) to the server, you can try to list what ports are listening for connections or you could try to connect to the database with telnet. To list listeners you can run "netstat -lnt" (-l shows listening, -n is numeric (show IP and port number) and -t is tcp). You should have a line like "tcp 0 0 0.0.0.0:5000 0.0.0.0:* LISTEN" if you have a service listening for TCP on port 5000. To try and connect you can simply do "telnet 127.0.0.1 5000", if you can't connect with telnet from the server then the database ain't listening/allowing your connection, or the server is running on another port or server.