10

PostgreSQL 9.1

经营情况

每个月,都会有一批新的帐户分配给特定的流程。每批可以用月份、账户数和账户总余额来描述。该过程的目标是从客户那里收回部分余额。然后每月单独跟踪每个批次(自批次转移到流程后每月回收的金额)。

目标

我的目标是预测将来会收回多少。

数据定义

create table vintage_data (
    granularity date,       /* Month when account entered process*/
    distance_in_months integer, /* Distance in months from date when accounts entered process*/
    entry_accounts integer,     /* Number of accounts that entered process in a given month*/
    entry_amount numeric,       /* Total amount for account that entered process in a given month*/
    recovery_amount numeric     /* Amount recovered in Nth month on accounts that entered process in a given month */
);

样本数据

insert into vintage_data values('2012-01-31',1,200,100000,1000);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-01-31',2,200,100000,2000);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-01-31',3,200,100000,3000);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-01-31',4,200,100000,3500);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-01-31',5,200,100000,3400);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-01-31',6,200,100000,3300);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-02-28',1,250,150000,1200);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-02-28',2,250,150000,1600);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-02-28',3,250,150000,1800);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-02-28',4,250,150000,1200);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-02-28',5,250,150000,1600);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-03-31',1,200,90000,1300);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-03-31',2,200,90000,1200);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-03-31',3,200,90000,1400);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-03-31',4,200,90000,1000);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-04-30',1,300,180000,1600);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-04-30',2,300,180000,1500);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-04-30',3,300,180000,4000);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-05-31',1,400,225000,2200);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-05-31',2,400,225000,6000);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-06-30',1,100,60000,1000);

计算过程

您可以将数据想象为三角矩阵(要预测 X 值):

distance_in_months                       1      2     3       4      5      6
granularity entry_accounts  entry_amount
2012-01-31  200             100000       1000   2000   3000   3500   3400   3300
2012-02-28  250             150000       1200   1600   1800   1200   1600   (X-1)
2012-03-31  200              90000       1300   1200   1400   1000   (X0)   (X4)
2012-04-30  300             180000       1600   1500   4000   (X1)   (X5)   (X8)
2012-05-31  400             225000       2200   6000   (X2)   (X6)   (X9)   (X11)
2012-06-30  100              60000       1000   (X3)   (X7)   (X10)  (X12   (X13)

算法

我的目标是预测所有缺失的点(未来)。为了说明这个过程,这是对点 X1 的计算

1) 使用最多 4 的距离获取前三个月的行总数:

2012-01-31  1000+2000+3000+3500=9500 (d4m3)
2012-02-28  1200+1600+1800+1200=5800 (d4m2)
2012-03-31  1300+1200+1400+1000=4900 (d4m1)

2) 使用最多 3 的距离获取前三个月的行总数:

2012-01-31  1000+2000+3000=6000 (d3m3)
2012-02-28  1200+1600+1800=4600 (d3m2)
2012-03-31  1300+1200+1400=3800 (d3m1)

3) 计算距离 3 和距离 4 的加权平均跑步率(由 entry_amount 加权):

(d4m3+d4m2+d4m1)/(100000+150000+90000) = (9500+5800+4900)/(100000+150000+90000) = 20200/340000 = 0.0594
(d3m3+d3m2+d3m1)/(100000+150000+90000) = (6000+4600+3800)/(100000+150000+90000) = 14400/340000 = 0.0424

4)计算距离3和距离4之间的变化

((d4m3+d4m2+d4m1)/(100000+150000+90000))/((d3m3+d3m2+d3m1)/(100000+150000+90000)) =
= (20200/340000)/(14400/340000) =
= 0.0594/0.0424 = 1.403 (PredictionRateForX1)

5) 使用不超过 3 的距离计算预测月份的行总数:

2012-04-30  1600+1500+4000=7100

6) 使用 entry_amount 计算预测月份的费率

7100/180000 = 0.0394

7) 计算 X1 的预测速率

0.0394 * PredictionRateForX1 = 0.05534

8) 计算 X1 的数量

(0.05534-0.0394)*180000 = 2869.2

问题

问题是如何使用 SQL 语句计算矩阵的其余部分(从 x-1 到 x13)。很明显,这将需要某种递归算法。

4

2 回答 2

2

这是一项艰巨的任务,将其拆分以使其更易于管理。我会把它放在一个 plpgsql 函数中RETURN TABLE

  1. 使用交叉表查询为您的“计算过程”矩阵创建一个临时表您需要tablefunc为此安装模块。运行(每个数据库一次):

    CREATE EXTENSION tablefunc;
    
  2. 逐个字段更新临时表。

  3. 返回表。

以下演示功能齐全,并使用 PostgreSQL 9.1.4 进行了测试。基于问题中提供的表定义:

-- DROP FUNCTION f_forcast();

CREATE OR REPLACE FUNCTION f_forcast()
  RETURNS TABLE (
  granularity date
 ,entry_accounts numeric
 ,entry_amount numeric
 ,d1 numeric
 ,d2 numeric
 ,d3 numeric
 ,d4 numeric
 ,d5 numeric
 ,d6 numeric) AS
$BODY$
BEGIN

--== Create temp table with result of crosstab() ==--

CREATE TEMP TABLE matrix ON COMMIT DROP AS
SELECT *
FROM   crosstab (
        'SELECT granularity, entry_accounts, entry_amount
               ,distance_in_months, recovery_amount
         FROM   vintage_data
         ORDER  BY 1, 2',

        'SELECT DISTINCT distance_in_months
         FROM   vintage_data
         ORDER  BY 1')
AS tbl (
  granularity date
 ,entry_accounts numeric
 ,entry_amount numeric
 ,d1 numeric
 ,d2 numeric
 ,d3 numeric
 ,d4 numeric
 ,d5 numeric
 ,d6 numeric
 );

ANALYZE matrix; -- update statistics to help calculations


--== Calculations ==--

-- I implemented the first calculation for X1 and leave the rest to you.
-- Can probably be generalized in a loop or even a single statement.

UPDATE matrix m
SET    d4 = (
    SELECT (sum(x.d1) + sum(x.d2) + sum(x.d3) + sum(x.d4))
            /(sum(x.d1) + sum(x.d2) + sum(x.d3)) - 1
            -- removed redundant sum(entry_amount) from equation
    FROM  (
        SELECT *
        FROM   matrix a
        WHERE  a.granularity < m.granularity
        ORDER  BY a.granularity DESC
        LIMIT  3
        ) x
    ) * (m.d1 + m.d2 + m.d3)
WHERE m.granularity = '2012-04-30';

--- Next update X2 ..


--== Return results ==--

RETURN QUERY
TABLE  matrix
ORDER  BY 1;

END;
$BODY$ LANGUAGE plpgsql;

称呼:

SELECT * FROM f_forcast();

我已经简化了很多,删除了计算中的一些冗余步骤。
该解决方案采用了多种先进技术。您需要了解如何使用 PostgreSQL 才能使用它。

于 2012-07-19T16:08:02.017 回答
1
        --
        -- rank the dates.
        -- , also fetch the the fields that seem to depend on them.
        -- (this should have been done in the data model)
        --
CREATE VIEW date_rank AS (
        SELECT uniq.granularity,uniq.entry_accounts,uniq.entry_amount
        , row_number() OVER(ORDER BY 0) AS zrank
        FROM ( SELECT DISTINCT granularity, entry_accounts, entry_amount FROM vintage_data)
             AS uniq
        );

-- SELECT * FROM date_rank ORDER BY granularity;
        --
        -- transform to an x*y matrix, avoiding the date key and the slack columns
        --
CREATE VIEW matrix_data AS (
        SELECT vd.distance_in_months AS xxx
        , dr.zrank AS yyy
        , vd.recovery_amount AS val
        FROM vintage_data vd
        JOIN date_rank dr ON dr.granularity = vd.granularity
        );
-- SELECT * FROM matrix_data;

        --
        -- In order to perform the reversed transformation:
        -- make the view insertable.
        -- INSERTS to matrix_data will percolate back into the vintage_data table
        -- (don't try this at home ;-)
        --
CREATE RULE magic_by_the_plasser AS
        ON INSERT TO matrix_data
        DO INSTEAD (
        INSERT INTO vintage_data (granularity,distance_in_months,entry_accounts,entry_amount,recovery_amount)
        SELECT dr.granularity, new.xxx, dr.entry_accounts, dr.entry_amount, new.val
        FROM date_rank dr
        WHERE dr.zrank = new.yyy
                ;
        );

        --
        -- This CTE creates the weights for a Pascal-triangle
        --
-- EXPLAIN -- ANALYZE
WITH RECURSIVE pascal AS (
        WITH empty AS (
                --
                -- "cart" is a cathesian product of X*Y
                -- its function is similar to a "calendar table":
                -- filling in the missing X,Y pairs, making the matrix "square".
                -- (well: rectangular, but in the given case nX==nY)
                --
                WITH cart AS (
                        WITH mmx AS (
                                WITH xx AS ( SELECT MIN(xxx) AS x0 , MAX(xxx) AS x1 FROM matrix_data)
                                SELECT generate_series(xx.x0,xx.x1) AS xxx
                                FROM xx
                                )
                        , mmy AS (
                                WITH yy AS ( SELECT MIN(yyy) AS y0 , MAX(yyy) AS y1 FROM matrix_data)
                                SELECT generate_series(yy.y0,yy.y1) AS yyy
                                FROM yy
                                )
                        SELECT * FROM mmx
                        JOIN mmy ON (1=1) -- Carthesian product here!
                        )
                --
                -- The (x,y) pairs that are not present in the current matrix
                --
                SELECT * FROM cart ca
                WHERE NOT EXISTS (
                        SELECT *
                        FROM matrix_data nx
                        WHERE nx.xxx = ca.xxx
                        AND nx.yyy = ca.yyy
                        )
                )
        SELECT md.yyy AS src_y
                , md.xxx AS src_x
                , md.yyy AS dst_y
                , md.xxx AS dst_x
                -- The filled-in matrix cells have weight 1
                , 1::numeric AS weight
        FROM matrix_data md
        UNION ALL
        SELECT pa.src_y AS src_y
                , pa.src_x AS src_x
                , em.yyy AS dst_y
                , em.xxx AS dst_x
                -- the derived matrix cells inherit weight/2 from both their parents
                , (pa.weight/2) AS weight
        FROM pascal pa
        JOIN empty em
                ON ( em.yyy = pa.dst_y+1 AND em.xxx = pa.dst_x)
                OR ( em.yyy = pa.dst_y AND em.xxx = pa.dst_x+1 )
        )
INSERT INTO matrix_data(yyy,xxx,val)
SELECT pa.dst_y,pa.dst_x
        ,SUM(ma.val*pa.weight)
FROM pascal pa
JOIN matrix_data ma ON pa.src_y = ma.yyy AND pa.src_x = ma.xxx
        -- avoid the filled-in matrix cells (which map to themselves)
WHERE NOT (pa.src_y = pa.dst_y AND pa.src_x = pa.dst_x)
GROUP BY pa.dst_y,pa.dst_x
        ;

        --
        -- This will also get rid of the matrix_data view and the rule.
        --
DROP VIEW date_rank CASCADE;
-- SELECT * FROM matrix_data ;

SELECT * FROM vintage_data ORDER BY granularity, distance_in_months;

结果:

NOTICE:  CREATE TABLE / PRIMARY KEY will create implicit index "vintage_data_pkey" for table "vintage_data"
CREATE TABLE
NOTICE:  ALTER TABLE / ADD UNIQUE will create implicit index "mx_xy" for table "vintage_data"
ALTER TABLE
INSERT 0 21
VACUUM
CREATE VIEW
CREATE VIEW
CREATE RULE
INSERT 0 15
NOTICE:  drop cascades to view matrix_data
DROP VIEW
 granularity | distance_in_months | entry_accounts | entry_amount |      recovery_amount      
-------------+--------------------+----------------+--------------+---------------------------
 2012-01-31  |                  1 |            200 |       100000 |                      1000
 2012-01-31  |                  2 |            200 |       100000 |                      2000
 2012-01-31  |                  3 |            200 |       100000 |                      3000
 2012-01-31  |                  4 |            200 |       100000 |                      3500
 2012-01-31  |                  5 |            200 |       100000 |                      3400
 2012-01-31  |                  6 |            200 |       100000 |                      3300
 2012-02-28  |                  1 |            250 |       150000 |                      1200
 2012-02-28  |                  2 |            250 |       150000 |                      1600
 2012-02-28  |                  3 |            250 |       150000 |                      1800
 2012-02-28  |                  4 |            250 |       150000 |                      1200
 2012-02-28  |                  5 |            250 |       150000 |                      1600
 2012-02-28  |                  6 |            250 |       150000 | 2381.25000000000000000000
 2012-03-31  |                  1 |            200 |        90000 |                      1300
 2012-03-31  |                  2 |            200 |        90000 |                      1200
 2012-03-31  |                  3 |            200 |        90000 |                      1400
 2012-03-31  |                  4 |            200 |        90000 |                      1000
 2012-03-31  |                  5 |            200 |        90000 | 2200.00000000000000000000
 2012-03-31  |                  6 |            200 |        90000 | 2750.00000000000000000000
 2012-04-30  |                  1 |            300 |       180000 |                      1600
 2012-04-30  |                  2 |            300 |       180000 |                      1500
 2012-04-30  |                  3 |            300 |       180000 |                      4000
 2012-04-30  |                  4 |            300 |       180000 | 2500.00000000000000000000
 2012-04-30  |                  5 |            300 |       180000 | 2350.00000000000000000000
 2012-04-30  |                  6 |            300 |       180000 | 2550.00000000000000000000
 2012-05-31  |                  1 |            400 |       225000 |                      2200
 2012-05-31  |                  2 |            400 |       225000 |                      6000
 2012-05-31  |                  3 |            400 |       225000 | 5000.00000000000000000000
 2012-05-31  |                  4 |            400 |       225000 | 3750.00000000000000000000
 2012-05-31  |                  5 |            400 |       225000 | 3050.00000000000000000000
 2012-05-31  |                  6 |            400 |       225000 | 2800.00000000000000000000
 2012-06-30  |                  1 |            100 |        60000 |                      1000
 2012-06-30  |                  2 |            100 |        60000 | 3500.00000000000000000000
 2012-06-30  |                  3 |            100 |        60000 | 4250.00000000000000000000
 2012-06-30  |                  4 |            100 |        60000 | 4000.00000000000000000000
 2012-06-30  |                  5 |            100 |        60000 | 3525.00000000000000000000
 2012-06-30  |                  6 |            100 |        60000 | 3162.50000000000000000000
(36 rows)
于 2012-07-20T13:19:58.610 回答